Nordic August Falls from Seven Session High

The Nordic August is currently down from its seven-session high this morning to track losses made by its European neighbours amid declining costs in EU ETS and TTF. Nordic precipitation forecasts relatively align with the 30-year norm, while Norway’s hydrological balance is still expected to be negative going into August.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 down 1.4% at 29 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1% at 70.18 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 64.48 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.5% at 31.685 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 0.9% at 107 USD/MT
• Precipitation across the Nordics is expected between 0.8-5.3mm over 24 July- 1 August, compared to the seasonal norm of around 2.9mm over the same period.
• The hydrological balance across Norway has been revised up for all days over over 22 July – 6 August, according to ECMWF forecasts. The highest revision is seen on 31 August – up by around 520GWh. Despite this, the balance is still expected to be negative until at least 6 August – when it will end at around -615GWh.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 84% of capacity today, up from 80% on Monday – likely weighing on delivery costs.
• The 990MW Forsmark unit 1 is scheduled to return to the grid on 27 July from maintenance that began at the end of June.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics are forecast to be between 17.3-19.3C over 23 July-1 August, with temperatures dropping below the 30-year norm of around 17.9C towards the beginning of August. Max temperatures are expected to reach as low as 21C on 1 August.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 15% load factor, or 0.801GW on 24 July – which could weigh on power prices on delivery coupled with stronger nuclear –, with wind then dropping to just a 9% load factor the next days, which could add some support to delivery costs.