Nordic August on Track for Fresh July Low

The Nordic August baseload power contract closed a fresh July low on 12 July, with the product possibly continuing its downward trend – once it becomes liquid – as TTF prices are slightly down on the day, while prices in its EU neighbours are currently trending downward.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 closed down 6.7% at 28.40 EUR/MWh on 12 July.
  
• France Base Power AUG 24 down 2% at 44.49 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1.5% at 69.72 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 1% at 68.47 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.1% at 31.685 EUR/MWh
• Precipitation across Norway has been slightly revised up over 16-17 July, with rain expected to climb as high as 11.7mm on 21 July, according to ECMWF – likely supporting hydro stocks. Rainfall in the country will vary from 1.4-11.7mm over 16-24 July compared to the 30-year norm of around 4mm.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 80% of capacity today, up from 77% in the previous session. The 1.04GW Forsmark 1 and 1.07GW Ringhals 3 nuclear units are both fully offline, with the units reconnected on 27 and 18 July, respectively.
• And average temperatures across the Nordics are still forecast to be above the 30-year norm of around 17C over 15-24 July – with max temperatures still anticipated to climb to around 23C over the period – possibly limited cooling demand.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at just a 7% load factor, or 0.355GW on 16 July – which could support power prices on delivery –, with the wind over 17-18 July between 0.645-1.25GW– possibly adding some weight to delivery costs.