Nordic August on Track for Weekly High

The Nordic August baseload power contract rebounded to close at its highest this week on 25 July, with the product possibly continuing its upward trend – once it becomes liquid – as TTF prices are slightly up on the day, while prices in its EU neighbours are currently trending upward.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 closed up 4.4% at 29.5 EUR/MWh on 25 July
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1% at 75.24 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.1% at 67.52 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 2.3% at 32.5 EUR/MWh
• Precipitation across Norway has been slightly revised up over 27-28 July, with but is only expected to climb as high as 6.5mm on 29 July, according to ECMWF. But rainfall in the country will vary from 0.4-0.8mm over 30 July-4 August compared to the 30-year norm of around 2.8mm.
• The hydrological balance across Norway has been revised down for all days over 3-9 August, with the balance revised lower by as much as 630GWh on 9 August – leading to the balance to be negative over the period and is anticipated to end at -1,268GWh on 9 August.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 87% of capacity today, unchanged from Thursday.
• And average temperatures across the Nordics are still forecast to be above the 30-year norm of around 17.8C over 29 July-4 August – with max temperatures anticipated to climb to around 24C over the period – possibly limited cooling demand.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at just a 10% load factor, or 0.547GW on 27 July – which could support power prices on delivery –, however, with typically low weekend demand and stable nuclear could weigh down prices.
• Wind is forecast at just 11% load factor on 29 July falling from the previous day – likely supporting delivery costs, with an increase in demand likely adding some additional support.