Nordic Front-Quarter Climbs for Second Session

The Nordic 3Q baseload power contract moved up this morning amid price increases in the equivalent TTF contract supporting neighbouring European markets but forecast for lower power demand in July compared to June and the return of nuclear power plants in the region could weigh down delivery prices at the beginning of the quarter.

• Nordic 3Q up 2.19% at €39.75/MWh.
  
• TTF July up 4.80% at €35.865/MWh.
• Sweden’s 1.08GW Ringhals block 3 in the SE3 bidding zone is still anticipated to return to the grid just before July starts, with the unit back on 29 June from maintenance which began on 15 May.
• The 890MW Olkiluoto 1 will also return on 16 June.
• But the 990MW Forsmark Block 1 will begin ramping to about 495MW of capacity between 30 June-7 July, with the plant fully offline over 7-27 July for planned works.
• Nordic hydro generation could also be limited over the month as reservoir stocks are saved for the upcoming winter.
• Power demand in Norway is forecast to edge down in July compared to the previous month at about 11.4GW compared to 11.8GW across June, data from Entso-E show.
• Closer in, temperatures throughout the two-week forecast are expected to be mostly in line with the 30-year norm of about 15C, with temperatures over 4-5 June slightly above at between 16-18C.
• But Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 79% of capacity on Monday – unchanged from Friday, with 9 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated to be high over 4-5 June at between 47-53% load factors, or 2.46-2.78GW – potentially weighing down on power prices over the period. Wind is then forecast between 21-22% over 6-7 June at 21-22%, or 1.09-1.17GW.