Nordic Front-Quarter Moves Higher

The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract trades slightly up on the as neighbouring European power and EU ETS markets are struggling to find direction, with TTF cost having given up some of their losses.

• Nordic Base Power Q4 up 1.4% at 46.4 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.5% at 75.33 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.2% at 67.89 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.9% at 33.2 EUR/MWh
• Just 1.17GW of Norwegian hydro capacity is anticipated to be offline over the 4Q24 due to the still anticipated maintenance of the Forsmark unit 3 from 1 September-18 October, latest Remit show.
• And Hydro stocks are still higher than the previous year, albeit narrowing the surplus to 2023 levels to 4.5 points, down from 7 points the week before – which could mean lower supply risks during the winter 2024-25 season.
• Rainfall is expected to be above the 30-year norm of around 3mm throughout over 3-8 July only dropping below 9-11 July, according to ECMWF forecasts.
• Closer in, maximum temperatures over 1-12 July in Helsinki are forecasted at around 20-23.5C- possibly limiting the cooling demand in the region. Temperatures in Oslo and Stockholm are forecast between 16-21.6C and 18-22.7C over the same period.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 19% load factor, or 0.998GW on 3 July – which could weigh on power prices on delivery –, with the wind over 4-5 July between 0.683-1.33GW.