Nordic Front-Quarter Rises

The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading slightly up from the previous session as forecasts point to a drier outlook, however, gains could be limited during today’s session as German power prices are currently under pressure from falling gas and EU ETS.

• Nordic Base Power front quarter up 1.3% at 45.85 EUR/MWh
• Germany Power front quarter down 0.9% at 87.34 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.7% at 65.98 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.5% at 32.2 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down over 18 July – 2 August, with the balance now remaining negative until early August and reaching only as high as -84GWh – increasing supply risks.
• The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 12-29% load factors, or 0.643-1.54GW over 20-21 July – which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to remain firm over 22-23 July at 21-28% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 78% of capacity on Friday, down from 79% on the previous day, however, nine of 11 units are still online.
• Max temperatures in the Nordics are forecasts between 22.9-24C over 20-28 July, ECMWF forecasts show – likely keeping cooling demand limited.