Nordic Hydro Stocks Narrow Surplus to 2023 to 12-Week Low

Nordic hydropower reserves slowed their rise last week (week 29) to be at 71.7% of capacity, or 90.99TWh. however, stocks continued to narrow their surplus the same week last year, with the deficit to the 19-year average widening to the highest since week 19.

• Stocks increased by just 1 percentage point compared to a 1.7 gain the week prior. Stocks increased at the slowest pace for any week so far this year.
• Reservoir levels narrowed their surplus to the same week last year to just 0.4 points from 1.6 points – this is the lowest surplus stocks have been since flipping from a deficit in week 18.
• And the deficit to the 19-year average widened to 5.5 points from a 3.5-point deficit in week 28.
• Finnish hydro stocks continued downward to record the only week-on-week drop in the region for the fourth consecutive week, falling to 72.5% of capacity, but still up on the year.
• Norwegian and Swedish reserves climbed to 72.9% and 68.3%, respectively, from 72% and 66.8% in week 28.
• Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests the hydrological balance in Norway has been revised slightly lower for the remainder of this week will be between -356GWh and -1.043TWh over 24-28 July – which could place downward pressure on hydro stocks.
• But Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 87% of capacity on Wednesday morning, moving up 80-83% over Monday- Tuesday – likely supporting reservoir levels.