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Nordic October Drops on Wetter Outlook, Gas

POWER
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The Nordic October contract is leading losses so far on the Nordic future curve pressured by upward revisions to Norway’s hydro balance - reducing supply risks into the 4Q24 – , with price falls in Germany due to declining EU gas prices adding additional weight.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 4.14% at 44 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Power OCT 24 down 0.9% at 92.50 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 72.72 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 0.6% at 40.22 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up over 20-27 August, with the balance anticipated to flip into positive territory on 22 August at +119GWh before reaching as high as 1,030GWh towards the end of the forecasts.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in October due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • And the 500MW Loviisa unit 1 will return on 30 September from works beginning on 31 August, while works at the 1.04GW will end on 15 September.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 13% load factors, or 0.681-0.703GW over 14-15 August – which could support power prices on delivery. Wind is then expected to rise to a 32% load factor the next day – likely placing downward pressures on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 88% of capacity on Tuesday, up from 85% on the previous day, with 10 of 11 units still online.
  • The 500MW Loviisa 2 will return on 25 August.
  • Max temperatures in the Nordics are forecasts between 18.8-23.1C over 14-22 August, ECMWF forecasts show – likely keeping cooling demand limited.
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The Nordic October contract is leading losses so far on the Nordic future curve pressured by upward revisions to Norway’s hydro balance - reducing supply risks into the 4Q24 – , with price falls in Germany due to declining EU gas prices adding additional weight.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 4.14% at 44 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Power OCT 24 down 0.9% at 92.50 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 72.72 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 0.6% at 40.22 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up over 20-27 August, with the balance anticipated to flip into positive territory on 22 August at +119GWh before reaching as high as 1,030GWh towards the end of the forecasts.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in October due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • And the 500MW Loviisa unit 1 will return on 30 September from works beginning on 31 August, while works at the 1.04GW will end on 15 September.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 13% load factors, or 0.681-0.703GW over 14-15 August – which could support power prices on delivery. Wind is then expected to rise to a 32% load factor the next day – likely placing downward pressures on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 88% of capacity on Tuesday, up from 85% on the previous day, with 10 of 11 units still online.
  • The 500MW Loviisa 2 will return on 25 August.
  • Max temperatures in the Nordics are forecasts between 18.8-23.1C over 14-22 August, ECMWF forecasts show – likely keeping cooling demand limited.