Nordic Sept Continues Upwards to Climb to August High

The Nordic September has risen for the second connective session to reach an August high as nuclear maintenance is expected to continue denting Norway's hydrological balance – sustaining support, with precipitation expected to start falling from 21 August. The equivalent EU power markets are also trending up – adding additional support – to resist a slight fall in EU gas.

• France Base Power SEP 24 up 0.6% at 75.1 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.6% at 94.49 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 73.43 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 down 0.2% at 39.765 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance was revised sharply in early September, with the balance forecast down by around 187-430GWh on 29 August-3 September. The balance is expected to end on 2 September at +1,384GWh compared to +1,801GWh forecasts for the same day on Monday morning.
• Precipitation in Norway will be above the 30-year norm of around 4.3mm over 21-26 August, with rain on 21 August expected at 15.3mm. Precipitation is then forecast to be at only 0.8-1.98mm over 27-29 August – possibly weighing on hydro stocks.
• Nuclear maintenance is scheduled at the 507MW Loviisa unit 1 over 31 August-30 September, however, the other 507MW unit 2 will return to the grid on 25 August, latest Remit data show.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 83% capacity on Tuesday, up from 82% on the previous day, with 9 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 14% load factor, or 0.711GW on 21 August – which could support power prices from the previous day. Wind will then rise to a 31% load factor the next day – possibly weighing down costs from 21 August.