North America Daily Oil Summary: Physical WTI Strengthening

Physical WTI prices are strengthening with the return of US refineries from maintenance and after the OPEC+ extension to voluntary production cuts according to Bloomberg.

• BofA cuts the 2024 Henry Hub price forecast from $3/mmbtu to $2.40/mmbtu but with risks from the pace of LNG increase, price sensitivity of supply, and weather.
• MARATHON CARSON REFINERY PLANS TO FLARE GASES 3 / 6 - 3 / 13 -bbg
• In 2024, Mexico’s Pemex is likely to see its refining infrastructure exceed 1m b/d of crude processing for the first time in nine years, according to Argus.
• The Greenback recovered some of its earlier losses following lower than expected ISM services data. The sharp drop caused a subsequent spike in crude prices, which eventually eroded with the USD’s recovery. The Bloomberg dollar spot index is now down around 0.05% on the day.
• S&P Global US Services PMI final was higher than expected (52.3 vs. 51.4 est), Composite final PMI final (52.5 vs. 51.4 est).
• ISM Services Index was lower than expected (52.6 vs. 53.0 est) and Prices Paid (58.6 vs. 62.0 est) -- as well as lower than expected Factory Orders (-3.6% vs. -2.9% est); Ex Trans (-0.8% vs. -0.1% est) data.
• The market awaits Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress is on Wednesday