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NORWAY: Recovery In Manufacturing IP Momentum Won’t Impact Norges Yet

NORWAY
CEEMEABulletNorwayGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

We don’t think the recovery in 3m/3m manufacturing industrial production will have a material hawkish input on the Norges Bank’s policy rate outlook, with inflation and the exchange rate still key to the reaction function.

  • Although manufacturing industrial production fell 1.1% in August, the seasonally adjusted 3m/3m series rose for a second consecutive month to 2.2% (vs 1.7% in July and -0.7% in August).
  • This is consistent with the manufacturing PMI remaining in expansionary territory through this year, and the uptick in industrial confidence in Statistics Norway’s Q3 business survey.
  • Headline industrial production – which includes the extraction and related services industries- also fell 1.1% in August but rose 6.0% compared to August 2023. On a 3m/3m basis, production was 5.0%.

 

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We don’t think the recovery in 3m/3m manufacturing industrial production will have a material hawkish input on the Norges Bank’s policy rate outlook, with inflation and the exchange rate still key to the reaction function.

  • Although manufacturing industrial production fell 1.1% in August, the seasonally adjusted 3m/3m series rose for a second consecutive month to 2.2% (vs 1.7% in July and -0.7% in August).
  • This is consistent with the manufacturing PMI remaining in expansionary territory through this year, and the uptick in industrial confidence in Statistics Norway’s Q3 business survey.
  • Headline industrial production – which includes the extraction and related services industries- also fell 1.1% in August but rose 6.0% compared to August 2023. On a 3m/3m basis, production was 5.0%.