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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11
Nov CPI Could Impact Statement, Won't Impact Decision / Dot Plot
- MNI doubts there would be any substantial changes in the Dot Plot/SEP (with submissions having been due last Friday, revisions can be submitted today, but that is basically unheard of, and a single data point probably isn't enough to warrant a change in forecast), let alone the 50bp hike decision.
- However, November's reading probably does tilt the balance toward participants favoring a slightly more dovish statement. The key part is the "ongoing increases" in the funds rate; there is a higher chance now that this is modified to say something like "some further increases" in rates is appropriate, albeit with a hawkish characterization on keeping rates in restrictive territory for "some time".
- This may also be a meeting too early, but the characterization of inflation may need an update, perhaps with a more detailed description of services vs goods pressures.
- Also, "higher food and energy prices" may remain but could be taken out as a somewhat dovish move: the "food" part was introduced at the July meeting, when food prices had been rising +1% M/M on average in H1; November's print was half that. "Energy" was introduced in March when prices were soaring amid the Ukraine crisis; it printed -1.6% M/M in Nov.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.