MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Tokyo Core CPI Rises 2.2% Vs. Sept 1.8%

MNI JAPAN NOV TOKYO CORE CPI +2.2% Y/Y; OCT +1.8%

MNI: GERMANY NOVEMBER FLASH HICP -0.7% M/M (FCST: -0.5%)

MNI BRIEF: China May Inject CNY1 Trln To Replenish Big Banks

MNI BRIEF: China Sees Progress On EU EV Deal

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY279.8 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: GERMANY NOV CPI +2.2% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

MNI: GERMANY NRW NOV CPI -0.3% M/M, +1.9% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Nov CPI Could Impact Statement, Won't Impact Decision / Dot Plot

FED
There are bound to be some changes of opinion on the outcome of Wednesday's FOMC decision after a second consecutive downside inflation surprise in November.
  • MNI doubts there would be any substantial changes in the Dot Plot/SEP (with submissions having been due last Friday, revisions can be submitted today, but that is basically unheard of, and a single data point probably isn't enough to warrant a change in forecast), let alone the 50bp hike decision.
  • However, November's reading probably does tilt the balance toward participants favoring a slightly more dovish statement. The key part is the "ongoing increases" in the funds rate; there is a higher chance now that this is modified to say something like "some further increases" in rates is appropriate, albeit with a hawkish characterization on keeping rates in restrictive territory for "some time".
  • This may also be a meeting too early, but the characterization of inflation may need an update, perhaps with a more detailed description of services vs goods pressures.
  • Also, "higher food and energy prices" may remain but could be taken out as a somewhat dovish move: the "food" part was introduced at the July meeting, when food prices had been rising +1% M/M on average in H1; November's print was half that. "Energy" was introduced in March when prices were soaring amid the Ukraine crisis; it printed -1.6% M/M in Nov.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.