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Nov Jobs Miss (+210K) Overlooked, Risk-Off on Virus Transmission

US TSYS
Whipsaw action post-data, rates recovered from early selling by late morning, finishing session near highs as risk-off tied to rapid rise of Omicron variant gaine momentum.
  • Reversing Initial Bid Post-Data, rates initially spiked after Nov employ misses estimate +210k vs. +550k -- pared gains on Oct up-revision to +546k and unemploy rate drop to 4.2%. Yield curves mixed with 5s30s off lows to 59.366 high finished appr 55.75.
  • Trading desks reported ongoing short end buying from domestic real$ accts in 2s, real$ faded short end flattening via 2s3s steepeners.
  • Tsy futures continued to extend session highs though the second half, risk-off tone partially driven by the rapid increase in Omicron Covid cases most notably in South Africa. 30YY currently 1.6856% vs. 1.6649% low. Mar'22 10Y futures traded through first resistance of 131-10 to -16 high, just below second resistance of 131-21 (Sep 24 high) before the close, trimmed gains late as equities bounced off lows (ESZ1-54.0 to 4521.75).
  • Look ahead: Fed enters media blackout this evening, no substantive data Monday, Trade and Unit Labor Costs on Tuesday.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 0.5873%, 5-Yr is down 7.9bps at 1.1271%, 10-Yr is down 9.6bps at 1.348%, and 30-Yr is down 8.1bps at 1.6811%.
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