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Now Outperforming G10 As Oil Moves Off Lows and Weekend Wage Deals Digested

NOK

After a soft start to the trading week, the NOK now outperforms the G10 (except for the SEK), as oil prices move away from intraday lows and labour union wage details from the weekend are digested.

  • Two industrial trade unions agreed on wage increases of 5.2% over the weekend. Manufacturing sector respondents in the Norges Bank’s Q1 ’24 Regional Network Survey had expected annual wage growth at a softer 4.9%.
  • These agreements may set the tone for wage deals in other industries. The Norges Bank’s March MPR expected 2024 annual wage growth at 4.9% overall.
  • All else equal, this may push back expectations for the Norges Bank’s first rate cut (currently centred around the September meeting, in line with Governor Wolden Bache’s guidance at the March monetary policy press conference).
  • NOKSEK is nonetheless 0.2% lower today with the SEK outperforming, though the cross remains within the bull channel drawn from the March 12 high.
  • March CPI (due Wednesday) is the main domestic focus this week, with the Norges Bank and analyst consensus forecasting CPI-ATE at 4.7% Y/Y.
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