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NW European LNG Prices have Fallen Below Oil-Index Contracts

LNG

NW European LNG prices have trended below oil-index contract prices and could favour spot cargo purchases, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

  • NW European prices have fallen around 3% on the week and 8% since the beginning of last month with August at $10.486/mmbtu on July 1.
  • Platts Dated Brent has however traded higher in the month amid healthy buying of North Sea grades due to improving refinery runs, strong product cracks and geopolitical risks.
  • Oil-indexed contracts are currently between 12% to 13.5% of Platts Dated Brent, S&P Global sources said. NW European LNG switched to a discount on July 1 versus a 12% slope and has predominantly been in-the-money since June 6 versus a 13.5% slope.
  • "Algerian gas to Spain and Italy is really the main flexibility when it comes to oil vs gas pricing in Europe," analyst Daivd Lewis said. Algerian piped gas to Italy and Spain could see a turndown in the next couple of months.
  • Healthy European inventories have provided a buffer for supply and prices.


Source: S&P Global

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