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NWM: QT Tapering Could Come At June Meeting

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • “Post-FOMC minutes, our strategy team pulled forward their expectation for when the Fed will start tapering its QT program.”
  • Following Dallas Fed’s Logan’s comments over the weekend, “Our strategy team now thinks an announcement could come at the June meeting, where officials could initiate a wind down of balance sheet rundown over a three month period.”
  • “A sample timeline could be the following – where the upcoming January meeting minutes show that more participants start asking questions about how far reserves should go (‘the talking about talking about’ phase), at the March meeting the issue is explored in further detail, and during the May meeting we get an advance notice that tapering might commence soon and the June meeting officially kicks-off tapering.”
  • NWM's rate view remains for a 50bp cut in May with 225bp of easing by end-2024.
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