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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Support U.Mich 1Y Increase, More Mixed Thereafter

US DATA
  • NY Fed inflation expectations saw the 1Y increase to 3.26% in April for its highest since Nov after four particularly stable readings at 3.0%.
  • The more medium-term metrics showed conflicting messages: the 3Y fell from 2.90% to 2.76%, almost fully reversing its prior increase whilst the 5Y increased two tenths to 2.8% to mostly reverse its prior decline.
  • Recall that Friday’s U.Mich preliminary survey for May helped extended a sell-off in US FI when the 1Y surprisingly increased from 3.2% to 3.5% and the 5-10Y from 3.0% to 3.1%.
  • Taken together, the NY Fed’s increase in the 1Y lends support to the recent strength in U.Mich. Longer-term is more mixed though: the NY Fed’s 3Y is only slightly higher than the 2.6% averaged through 2019 yet the U.Mich at 3.1% is still stuck above the 2.4% in 2019 [the NY Fed’s 5Y started in 2022].

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