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NZ-AU 1Y3M Differential Hits Lowest Level Since Sep 2020

AUSSIE SWAPS

The NZ-AU 10-year yield differential closed 3bps tighter at +8bps, its lowest level since August 2022.

  • The recent narrowing in the 10-year yield differential has been primarily driven by a narrowing in the NZ-AU 3-month swap rate 1-year forward (1Y3M) spread, which has narrowed more than 190bps since its cyclical high in mid-2023.
  • Moreover, today’s level of -18bps for the NZ-AU 1Y3M leaves it at its lowest level since September 2020.
  • The 1Y3M differential is a proxy for the expected relative policy path over the next 12 months.


Figure 1: NZ-AU 1Y3M Swap Differential



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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