Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
STIR markets within the $-bloc have delivered mixed net results over the past week, with New Zealand outperforming and the US underperforming.
- Year-end official rate expectations softened 13bps in New Zealand over the past week following the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday to cut the OCR by 25bps to 5.25%. Going into the meeting, the market had priced a 58% chance of a 25bp cut. The market now prices 35bps of easing for the next meeting, with a cumulative 79bps by November.
- By contrast, the US market has seen year-end official expectations firm 12bps over the past week as US recession risks have been priced out.
- Overnight, better-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data saw the probability for a 50bps cut pared. The market is pricing ~32bps of easing at the September FOMC, with 88bps by year-end.
- There was little net movement in year-end expectations in Canada or Australia.
- The December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: 4.45%, -88bps (FOMC); 3.78%, -72bps (BoC); 4.11%, -21bps (RBA); and 4.46%, -79bps (RBNZ).
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok