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FOREX: NZD bulls rewarded as RBNZ defies calls to turn dovish
-Despite recent dovish turns from the Fed, RBA and ECB, RBNZ stood their ground
at their rate decision overnight as governor Orr stated that the odds for a rate
cut have not increased. In response, the NZD swaps market trimmed expectations
of policy easing by the end of 2019 to below 60% from 80% ahead of the release,
helping underpin a rally of well over 1.5% through both the 200- and 50-dmas.
-Outside of the RBNZ, the Riksbank rate decision resulted in no change to rates,
still seeing a rate hike in the second half of 2019, defying some outside bets
that the Riksbank would steer back toward looser policy for now. The bank also
chose not to extend their currency intervention mandate, which lent to the SEK
rally this morning pressing EUR/SEK through Sek10.45.
-The JPY gained little respite overnight, falling to fresh YTD lows against the
USD of Y110.77 as equities continue to gain. Mainland European indices sit
higher by between 0.1-0.5%.
-US January CPI is the data highlight, with Fed's Mester, Bostic and Harker as
well as ECB's Visco and Villeroy due to speak.