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NZD: NZD/USD Bounces Of Cycle Lows, Remains In A Bear Trend

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  • NZD/USD was a top performer on Thursday, rising 0.49% to 0.6093 and only just lagging the JPY & CHF. Majority of the moves came in the Asian session which looked largely like some profit taking after the recent 5% fall on the back of RBNZ cutting rates 50bps and the expectation of further large cuts.
  • The pair had paired half of the sessions gains prior to the stronger-than-expected US CPI & weaker-than-expected Jobless claims saw volatility increase briefly hitting a low of 0.6060 before ultimately closing at session highs.
  • Technically, NZD/USD remains trading below all key moving averages, the 14-day RSI is 39, while the MACD is printing the largest negative bars for the year, signally bearish momentum. The pair did bounce off the 61.8% retracement from the July 30-Oct 1 move, at 0.6060 on Thursday with is seen as initial support, with a break here opening a move to 0.6000 (Aug 14 lows). Initial resistance is 0.6112  (200-day EMA/ 50% retracement July 30-Oct 1 move), a break here 0.6169 (Aug 7 highs)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady with 55.3bps of cuts priced for November. Although pricing has cooled out through to August, with 150bps of cuts, from 168bps on Wednesday
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 10bps on Thursday to -17bps
  • BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 vs 46.1 prior, Food Prices also rose 0.5% in September up from 0.2% in August, while Net migration for August dropped to +1840, from +3000 in July, the calendar is empty for the rest of the session.
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  • NZD/USD was a top performer on Thursday, rising 0.49% to 0.6093 and only just lagging the JPY & CHF. Majority of the moves came in the Asian session which looked largely like some profit taking after the recent 5% fall on the back of RBNZ cutting rates 50bps and the expectation of further large cuts.
  • The pair had paired half of the sessions gains prior to the stronger-than-expected US CPI & weaker-than-expected Jobless claims saw volatility increase briefly hitting a low of 0.6060 before ultimately closing at session highs.
  • Technically, NZD/USD remains trading below all key moving averages, the 14-day RSI is 39, while the MACD is printing the largest negative bars for the year, signally bearish momentum. The pair did bounce off the 61.8% retracement from the July 30-Oct 1 move, at 0.6060 on Thursday with is seen as initial support, with a break here opening a move to 0.6000 (Aug 14 lows). Initial resistance is 0.6112  (200-day EMA/ 50% retracement July 30-Oct 1 move), a break here 0.6169 (Aug 7 highs)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady with 55.3bps of cuts priced for November. Although pricing has cooled out through to August, with 150bps of cuts, from 168bps on Wednesday
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 10bps on Thursday to -17bps
  • BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 vs 46.1 prior, Food Prices also rose 0.5% in September up from 0.2% in August, while Net migration for August dropped to +1840, from +3000 in July, the calendar is empty for the rest of the session.