September 29, 2024 22:07 GMT
NZD: NZD/USD End Week At Highest Level For The Year
NZD
- The NZD/USD closed Friday 0.22% higher at 0.6342 and ended the week up 1.67%, the pair closed at its highest level since July 2023. China's stimulus has been supporting the likes of NZD & AUD, while a weaker USD also helps.
- It is another quiet week for New Zealand on the data front, we have ANZ Business Confidence & Activity Outlook this morning while we also have Building permits tomorrow.
- The latest CFTC data shows a slight improvement in speculative net positions for the NZD, with positions rising to -1.5K from -1.9K as of September 27, 2024. While still negative, this shift indicates a small increase in investor confidence or interest in the NZD.
- The pair had it's highest weekly close in 17 months, initial resistance is at 0.6367 (Sep 28 highs) with a break here then targeting 0.6393 (July 2023 Highs), to the downside a break back below 0.6300 would then on a move to the 0.6243 (20-day EMA). The RSI is at 64, while the MACD indicator is showing increasing green bars.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing has firmed 2bps into year-end, with 91bps of cuts now priced by November. Looking further out the curve to August next year we have 10-20bps with 9 cuts now priced by August.
- The NZ-US 2yr fell 6bps to 12bps on Friday
- Expiries: 0.5575 ($600m) Oct 2 & 0.6310 ($1.06b) Oct 3
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