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NZD: NZD/USD Falls As Local Banks Sees 50bps Of Cuts

NZD
USGlobalAPACNew ZealandBulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • NZD/USD fell 1.07% to 0.6282 on Tuesday with investors buying the USD as tensions in the middle east increase, while  while the NZD also saw some weakness after local banks now see the RBNZ cutting by 50bps at the meeting next week.
  • The latest GDT auction saw the average price of whole milk powder rise to $3,559 per ton from $3,448, while the overall GDT price index increased by 1.2%. The weighted average price for all milk products rose 3% to $3,851 per ton.
  • Auckland's average house price fell by 2.4% in September to NZ$1,081,069, continuing declines from August and July, according to Barfoot & Thompson. The median price also dropped 1.9% to NZ$934,500.
  • Initial resistance is 0.6379 (Sep 30 highs) with a break here then targeting 0.6393 (July 2023 Highs), to the downside after breaking below 0.6300 overnight 0.6251 (20-day EMA) is key resistance, below here 0.6200 becomes the target. The RSI is at 56, while the MACD indicator is showing decreasing green bars.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing has firm 3-5bps into year-end, with 44bps or a 76% chance of a cut next week while the market is now pricing in 94bps of cuts now by November. Looking further out to August next year the market i now pricing in 230bps of cuts, firming 5-10bps.
  • The NZ-US 2yr fell 3bps to 5bps on Tuesday
  • Expiries: 0.5575 ($600m) Oct 2 & 0.6310 ($1.06b) Oct 3
  • The calendar is light on this week, with just ANZ Commodity prices on Thursday of note.
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  • NZD/USD fell 1.07% to 0.6282 on Tuesday with investors buying the USD as tensions in the middle east increase, while  while the NZD also saw some weakness after local banks now see the RBNZ cutting by 50bps at the meeting next week.
  • The latest GDT auction saw the average price of whole milk powder rise to $3,559 per ton from $3,448, while the overall GDT price index increased by 1.2%. The weighted average price for all milk products rose 3% to $3,851 per ton.
  • Auckland's average house price fell by 2.4% in September to NZ$1,081,069, continuing declines from August and July, according to Barfoot & Thompson. The median price also dropped 1.9% to NZ$934,500.
  • Initial resistance is 0.6379 (Sep 30 highs) with a break here then targeting 0.6393 (July 2023 Highs), to the downside after breaking below 0.6300 overnight 0.6251 (20-day EMA) is key resistance, below here 0.6200 becomes the target. The RSI is at 56, while the MACD indicator is showing decreasing green bars.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing has firm 3-5bps into year-end, with 44bps or a 76% chance of a cut next week while the market is now pricing in 94bps of cuts now by November. Looking further out to August next year the market i now pricing in 230bps of cuts, firming 5-10bps.
  • The NZ-US 2yr fell 3bps to 5bps on Tuesday
  • Expiries: 0.5575 ($600m) Oct 2 & 0.6310 ($1.06b) Oct 3
  • The calendar is light on this week, with just ANZ Commodity prices on Thursday of note.