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NZD Up From Cyclical Lows, Services PMI and Orr Speech On Tap Today

NZD

NZD finished last week on a firmer footing, the second best performer against the USD within the G10 space on Friday (trailing JPY slightly). We track around 0.5985/90 currently. Support was evident under 0.5950/ahead of 0.5940 through the offshore session on Friday. Today's focus will be on the August performance of services index (PSI), due out in about 15 mins. Later on, RBNZ Governor Orr speaks at a climate change conference .

  • Despite Friday's gain, the technical picture for NZD/USD still remains challenging. The 20 day MA is still around 100pips higher at 0.6090 from current spot. Topside resistance may be evident around 0.6020/30, highs from last week (post the US CPI print).
  • Cross asset signals were mixed for NZD late last week, with equities lower in the US/EU but the VIX remained range bound.
  • The NZ-US 2yr spread is up off recent lows, +11bps, from around flat, as we had a local bank revising higher its OCR projections on Friday.
  • The last PSI print was 51.2. Recall on Friday, the manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in August from a revised 53.5 gain in July.
  • Governor Orr's speech may not cover much new ground from a near-term monetary policy outlook standpoint.
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