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NZD/USD Fails To Hold Above 0.6100, Dairy Prices Fall 2.30%

NZD
  • NZD/USD declined throughout the Asian session on Tuesday, touching 0.6071. A quick reversal heading into US data saw the pair retest its recent highs of 0.6113. However, it was unable to break higher as weaker-than-expected US services PMI data caused a sell-off in risk assets. NZDUSD closed the day down 0.16% at 0.6085, while the BBDXY finished down 0.06%.
  • Key levels to watch, initial support at 0.6071 (Mar 5th lows) below here 0.6064 (Jan 23 lows) while a break of those levels opens up a retest of the yearly lows at 0.6038. To the upside, initial resistance at 0.6112 (March 4th highs)a break above opens a move to 0.6125/35 area (20 & 50-Day EMAs).
  • Fonterra released Milk price data earlier showing dairy prices had pulled back modestly by 2.30% in Tuesday's auction, with Whole Milk down 2.8%, Skim Milk down 5.2% Anhydrous Milk Fat up 1.4% and Cheddar up 4%. Chinese demand moderated a touch and is around mid-range by recent standards, while Southeast Asian buyers took up the slack.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway has been speaking on a webinar this morning expressing concerns about a potential Fed rate cut preceding RBNZ actions, highlighting the risk of weaker inflation and the potential impact on lifting the exchange rate. He also emphasized the importance of core inflation within the 1-3% band, while also acknowledging household inflation expectations as a risk and noted the ability of RBNZ policy to influence non-tradable prices. Despite a soft outlook for household consumption, he stressed the necessity for maintaining restrictive rates over a sustained period while finding encouragement in the declines observed in core inflation.
  • Earlier NZ 4Q Construction work fell - 0.1% QoQ vs -1.8% expected, with residential construction down 2.4% QoQ while non-residential rose 4.6% QoQ.
  • Looking ahead: Little on the calendar for the remainder of the with other than Mfg Activity Volume and NZ to Sell 3yr, 7yr & 20yr Bonds on Thursday
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