NZD/USD Has Worst Week Since Jan, Holds Above 0.6000.

The NZD/USD had its worst week since January falling about 1.80%. Net speculative positions were unchanged on Friday, and with just NZ Trade Balance data this week, price drivers for the NZD will largely be external factors.

• The pair remains under the 20, 100, and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish bias. Technical indicators show continued selling pressure, with RSI at 37 and MACD showing increasing negative bars. A break back above resistance at 0.6070 would be needed to break the short-term trend, while strong support is at 0.6000.
• The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6018 up 0.13% early. Last weeks lows were 0.6006, made just before the close on Friday.
• CFTC data shows that speculative net positions for the NZD remained stable at 25.9K, indicating no change from the previous report.
• The OIS market is little changed, pricing a 47.5% chance of a cut in August and a 81.5% chance of a cut in October for a cumulative 32bps of cuts.
• The NZ-US 2yr swap spread continues to make new multi-year lows and now trades at -5bps, 40bps lower than the July highs.
• Expiries: 0.585 ($150m), 0.6400 ($150m) July 23rd
• Looking ahead, Trade Balance at 08:45 AEST.