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Recession Consensus Mounts: Timing/Severity Vary (3/4)


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KIWI: NZD/USD last deals at $0.6529, barely changed on the day, with NZ BoP
current account data expected at 23:45 BST. The release will be closely watched
ahead of tomorrow's publication of NZ Q1 GDP.
- The rate gyrated around neutral levels in yesterday's Asia-Pac hours, limited
by post-RBA minutes AUD weakness, amid broader risk-off mood.
- However, soaring risk appetite ignited upside momentum in the European & U.S.
hours. Comments from ECB Pres Draghi, who said that rate cuts remain part of the
ECB's toolkit & additional stimulus might be needed boosted European equities.
- NZD/USD then staged another rally on yet another wave of optimism as U.S. Pres
Trump said that he had a phone conversation with Chinese Pres Xi & the two will
meet at the G20 summit. NZD/USD topped out just shy of $0.6540 as a result.
- Risk developments overshadowed a downtick in whole milk powder prices at the
latest GDT auctions and the kiwi finished comfortably atop of the G10 pile.
- Bulls look to the May 31 high of $0.6548 and above here opens the 21-DMA/May
27 & 28 highs at $0.6557/59. Meanwhile, bears need a retreat below $0.6500
before setting their sights on the YtD low of $0.6482.

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