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NZD/USD Off Daily Lows, Eyes 0.6100

NZD

NZD is off the lows from earlier this morning, trading again in very tight ranges of 20pips. Earlier RBNZ Gov Orr gave a speech in Christchurch, largely irritating what was mentioned earlier this week at the RBNZ OCR meeting.

  • NZD/USD has been grinding higher today after hitting a morning low of 0.6080, to trade at 0.6097. The pair is 1.70% lower post the RBNZ decision so a pull-back wouldn't be unexcepted, however a break and hold above 0.6100, a level that we were unable to hold above on Thursday would be needed to trigger the move.
  • Key levels to watch, initial support at 0.6080 (Feb 28 & 29 lows) below here 0.6064 (Jan 23 lows) while a break of those levels opens up a retest of the yearly lows at 0.6050. To the upside, initial resistance at 0.6113 (Feb 29 highs) above here and break above opens a move to 0.6140 area (20 & 50-Day EMAs). while short term further upside will likely be limited as NZ$2.1b option strikes roll off at a strikes of 0.6170-90 between now and March 5th
  • RBNZ Gov Adrian Orr spoke earlier in Christchurch to the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce, where we mentioned that inflation was still too high, although it is declining and that he expects to being normalizing policy in 2025
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