NZD/USD Remains Rangebound, Holds Below 20 EMA

The Kiwi finished Friday slightly lower, extending its losing streak to three days, with the NZD/USD stabilizing at 0.6115 despite an attempt to rally to a high of 0.6140. The unsuccessful attempt to maintain gains solidifies the increasing bearish sentiment for the Kiwi, with the pair now trading below the 20-day EMA at 0.6130.

• The NZD/USD experienced volatility, initially rising to 0.6140 but failing to hold gains, leading to a stabilization at 0.6115. The 14-day RSI stands at 49, hinting at a shift towards bearish momentum, while MACD continues to show increasing red bars, indicating strong seller presence. The NZD/USD has opened little changed this morning and is currently trading at 0.6116.
• Key levels to watch: Immediate support is near 0.6100, with additional support at the at 0.6080 (100 & 200-day EMA) A breach below these EMA convergence points might signal an intensified sell-off scenario. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 20-day SMA level at 0.6130 a move above here would see a the pair target 0.6220 (June 12th highs)
• Roger J Kerr highlights that the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar value to force tradable inflation down, which could help offset non-tradeable inflation that remains out of their control. He suggests that the RBNZ could push NZ interest rates above US rates or use "jawboning" to strengthen the NZD, but they have not utilized these tools under Governor Orr.
• The US-NZ 2y Swap is little changed at -30bps.
• Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5500 (NZD320.7m June 25).
• Coming up, we have New Zealand May Trade Balance at 0845 AEST.