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NZDJPY Extends Intra-Day Gains to 1.15%, RBNZ Decision Wednesday

FOREX
  • The firmer tone for risk sentiment on Monday is benefitting the Kiwi most notably in G10 and the aforementioned pressure on the Yen has seen NZDJPY extend its intra-day advance to 1.15%.
  • The cross briefly pierced last week’s highs in the process, rising back above 89.00, which may strengthen the scope for a more protracted recovery to the psychological 90.00 mark which has been technically pivotal in recent months. A close back above here would then target trendline resistance closer to 93.00.
  • While difficult to measure, desks have been noting that a significant portion of JPY shorts have already been covered and outside of accelerated position adjustments, the potential for sustained JPY outperformance is low, and the upside for JPY from here is likely limited.
  • The domestic focus will fall on Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting/decision. We believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's MPC is likely to hold the official cash rate at 5.5%, but it will debate a cut and inject greater dovish language into its communications as it prepares for reductions later this year. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, analysts remain evenly divided between a hold and a 25bp cut.

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