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Global Macro
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Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
NZGBS: Closed Richer Ahead Of Q2 CPI Tomorrow
NZGBs closed on a positive note with benchmark yields flat to 2bp lower ahead of Q2 CPI tomorrow. Without meaningful domestic drivers, local participants have been content to monitor developments in US tsys and ACGBs. NZ/US and NZ/US 10-year yield differentials closed little changed.
- Tomorrow sees the release of Q2 CPI with economists expecting the quarterly pace to step down to +0.9% q/q from +1.2% in Q1. This will leave the annual rate at +5.9% down from +6.7%. If analysts are correct, then inflation would be below RBNZ’s Q2 forecast of +1.1% q/q and +6.1% y/y. The RBNZ appears to be on hold for now, unless inflation isn’t in the target band by H2 2024, with the risk to rates likely to stem from sticky non-tradeable inflation (+1.0% q/q versus +1.7% prior).
- Swap rates are flat to 3bp lower with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS closed little changed with terminal OCR expectations sitting at 5.64%.
- The latest 1News/Verian poll showed support for the incumbent Labour Party down 2pp to 33% but the opposition Nationals also down 2pp to 35%. The NZ election is scheduled for October 14.
- Later today sees June US retail sales and industrial production, May US business inventories, and the July NAHB housing market index.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.