NZGBS: Little Changed, Subdued Overnight Ahead Of A Busy Global Policy & Data Week

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper after a subdued start to a busy week of global central bank policy meetings and key data releases. This week will see policy decisions from the BoJ, BoE and Fed alongside top-tier economic releases including the US Non-Farm Payrolls report and Employment Cost Index, Euro Area CPI and GDP, Australian CPI and China PMI.

• WTI has lost ground today, falling to its lowest level since June 10. Crude is extending the recent bearish trend amid weak Chinese demand and OPEC’s planned supply boost from Q4. The recent move lower in WTI futures signals the scope for an extension soon. A resumption of the bear leg would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low, according to MNI’s Technicals team. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $83.58, the Jul 5 high.
• Swap rates are little changed.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 76bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Today, the local calendar is empty ahead of Building Permits and ANZ Business Confidence tomorrow.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$300mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.