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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNZGBs Richer In Earlier Trading, WBC Sees Cuts In Feb, US CPI Tonight
In local morning trading, NZGBs are 1-3bps richer and the curve has bull-flattened. WBC says RBNZ to start cutting in Feb 2025 and there is no data out in NZ today with the market focused on US CPI with consensus at 3.4% y/y down from 3.5% y/y in March
- US treasury futures gapped lower initial as US PPI was released overnight, before a deeper look into the numbers caused a quick reversal with the 10Y contract trading back above 109-00, while yields closed the session 4-5.5bps lower
- The NZGB curve is bull-flattening this morning with the 2Y -1.6bps at 4.734%, 10Y is -2.6bps at 4.646% and just off monthly lows of 4.638%
- Westpac economists predict that the RBNZ will begin lowering interest rates in February 2025, anticipating that inflation will remain above 2%. They forecast inflation to decline to 2.3% in the second quarter of 2025 and 2.2% by the fourth quarter.
- Swap rates are 0.5bp to 1.5bps lower
- RBNZ dated OIS is unchanged this morning, with a cumulative 46bps of easing is priced by year-end
- Looking Ahead: empty calendar on Wednesday with PPI input/output on Friday
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.