MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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NZGBS: Slightly Richer, Q4 CPI On Wednesday

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are slightly richer after US tsys concluded trading on Friday with a slight twist-flattening of the curve. The 2-year finished with its yield 3bps higher at 4.38%, while the 10-year ended at 4.12%, 2bps richer.

  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) used a Fox interview to push back on near-term cut expectations. "There's a lot of work left to do. We're not there yet, and it's far too early to declare victory” … "It's really premature to think (rate cuts) are around the corner." Market pricing gives a rate cut as soon as March approximately a 50% chance.
  • The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose to records on Friday. The same group of companies that powered 2023’s rally is again driving the new year's advance, namely the AI-related Nvidia, Microsoft and Facebook-parent Meta.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged across meetings. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty, ahead of the release of the Performance Services Index tomorrow. The week’s highlight however is likely to be Q4 CPI data on Wednesday, with consensus expecting an increase of 0.5% from 1.8%. That would see annual inflation dropping to 4.7%, down from 5.6% in the year to September.
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