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OAT leads EGBs lower

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  • As noted post Cash EU Govie open, US Tnotes (TYZ4), and Bund were back around pre NFP levels, but are drifting slightly lower now, with the initial selling flow mostly seen in the French OAT in Europe, few clips of 1k cumulative sellers went through.
  • Syndication and Issuance are likely keeping the lid on futures, but the German supply is small and shouldn't impact Bonds.
  • On the other side of the Pond, the US will be focussed on the $58bn 3yr Notes.
  • For the US Tnotes, although it didn't quite managed to challenge the August high situated at 115.19 on NFP day, the 10yr Yield did have a quick test to its lowest level since June 2023, before bouncing back as futures were sold off, after the NFP didn't disappoint as much as some were positioned for.
  • Most desks will look for resistance at 115.13 and 115.19 in futures, but looking at the 10yr Yield, next big support area would be seen towards ~3.5627%, the June 2023 low, which is further out for now.
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  • As noted post Cash EU Govie open, US Tnotes (TYZ4), and Bund were back around pre NFP levels, but are drifting slightly lower now, with the initial selling flow mostly seen in the French OAT in Europe, few clips of 1k cumulative sellers went through.
  • Syndication and Issuance are likely keeping the lid on futures, but the German supply is small and shouldn't impact Bonds.
  • On the other side of the Pond, the US will be focussed on the $58bn 3yr Notes.
  • For the US Tnotes, although it didn't quite managed to challenge the August high situated at 115.19 on NFP day, the 10yr Yield did have a quick test to its lowest level since June 2023, before bouncing back as futures were sold off, after the NFP didn't disappoint as much as some were positioned for.
  • Most desks will look for resistance at 115.13 and 115.19 in futures, but looking at the 10yr Yield, next big support area would be seen towards ~3.5627%, the June 2023 low, which is further out for now.