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October CPI Preview - First Test Of Data Dependency

NORWAY

Norway October CPI is released at 0700 GMT / 0800 CET, a highly anticipated release after the Norges Bank introduced a more data-dependent stance in the recent November monetary policy decision following the lower-than-expected September inflation print.

  • BBG Consensus: CPI-ATE 5.6% Y/Y, 0.3% M/M; CPI 3.5% Y/Y, 0.5% M/M
  • The analyst previews we have read see CPI-ATE inflation falling slightly/remaining flat in Y/Y terms, while CPI is expected to rise somewhat.
  • NOK will likely be sensitive to any significant deviations from consensus as in September.
  • For the December Norges Bank meeting, October CPI will be viewed alongside the November release and other factors (e.g. the weak NOK and stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings). Therefore, tomorrow's release alone should not cement the case for either a hike or hold in December.

For our full preview including a summary of sell-side views, please see the PDF below:

MNI Norway October CPI Preview 2023-11-09.pdf

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