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October CPI To Set Tone Before November Banxico Decision

MEXICO
  • Headline and core inflation rates likely continued falling in October, broadly in line with central bank forecasts, but still above the ceiling of Banxico’s target range. Core CPI, which remains the focus for the committee, is expected to come in at 5.49%, down from 5.54% at the Mid-October read.
  • As a reminder, Heath previously took to social media to reiterate his hawkish views, stating that Mexico’s recent developments for core inflation data were “good news” but it still has a “long way to go.” Data is due at the top of the hour:
    • Oct. CPI M/m, est. 0.39%, prior 0.44%
    • Oct. CPI Y/y, est. 4.26%, prior 4.45%
    • Oct. CPI Core M/m, est. 0.38%, prior 0.36%
    • Oct. CPI Core Y/y, est. 5.49%, prior 5.76%
  • All analysts are expecting Banxico to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 11.25%. The decision is due at 1900GMT/1400ET and the full MNI preview with sell-side views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/56846/MNI%20Banxico%20Preview%20-%20November%202023.pdf

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