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October Policy Rate Hike Had Unanimous Support From MPC Board

POLAND
  • Poles took to the streets on Sunday to show support for European Union membership after a controversial court verdict plunged the country's already fraught relations with the bloc to a new low. The EU's top court starts a two-day hearing in the cases brought by Poland and Hungary that challenge the new tool targeting rule-of-law violations (BBG).
  • Earlier this morning, NBP policymaker Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that the October policy rate hike had unanimous support and that the rate hike will likely curb inflation expectations for more.
  • Unlike its CEE peers (Czech, Hungary) that have clearly embarked into tightening cycle and will continue to hike rates until inflationary pressures start to ease, NBP Governor Glapinski refused to comment if last week's move was the start of the tightening cycle for Poland.
  • Policy outlook will be conditional on the inflation and economic activity data and forecasts.
  • With inflation expected to rise up to 6% by the end of the year, odds for more hikes in the coming meetings have been rising, but the outcome still remains binary.
  • Hence, the uncertainty over the policy outlook could continue to weigh on PLN against major crosses.
  • Poland will sell 3b yuan of 3-year panda bonds on China's inter-bank market Wednesday to Thursday.
  • Next economic data to watch will be current account balance on October 14 and core CPI on October 18.
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