MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Off Early Highs, Short End Underperforms, Rate Cut Odds Still Supported

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish mixed Thursday, well off early session highs with the short end mildly weaker after the bell. Curves unwound a portion of yesterday's steepening with 2s10s -3.763 at -18.867. Sep'24 10Y futures neared initial technical resistance of 111-13+ (July 16 high) before finishing at 110-26 (+4.5).
  • Tsys climbed past yesterday's early highs on a variety of dovish/risk off factors (20bp medium-term lending facility rate cut by PBOC, soft EU data and carry-over weakness in global equities after Wed's rout). In turn, projected rate cut pricing into year end surged briefly with almost three 25bp cuts priced in by December.
  • Treasuries pared gains after higher than expected GDP, weekly/continuing jobless slightly lower than expected, while durable goods orders decline. Real GDP growth: 2.84% annualized in Q2 (cons 2.0, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow 2.7) after 1.4% in Q1 and the average 4.1% in 2H23. Initial jobless claims pulled back slightly more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 235k (cons 238k) in the week to Jul 20 after an upward revised 245k (initial 243k).
  • Headline durable goods orders unexpectedly collapsed in June, falling the most (-6.6% M/M vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) since the start of the Covid pandemic (April 2020 -20.0%). The seasonally-adjusted level of durable goods orders thus fell back to levels not seen since November 2021.
  • Cross asset roundup: US$ receded, stocks bounced after Wednesday's rout, Gold sold off while crude prices rebounded.
  • Focus turns to Friday's personal income & spending data and UofM inflation sentiment.
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