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After a limited start T-Notes managed to extend to fresh session highs, presumably on some worry surrounding the Chinese growth trajectory in the wake of softer than expected Chinese m'fing PMI releases (and subsequent expectations for the prospect of further policy easing), with softer oil prices also lending a helping hand. The contract last prints +0-05+ at 134-20, 0-01 shy of best levels on volume of ~94K. Technical resistance is not seen until the 20 July high/bull trigger (135-07). Light twist steepening of the curve is evident, with 5s leading the richening (last ~1.0bp firmer), while 20s and 30s now print a little off of their intraday cheaps (~0.5bp cheaper on the day last). There hasn't been much in the way of notable market flow to comment on.
- The weekend saw a slightly slower than exp. rate of expansion printed in China's headline official m'fing PMI print (followed up by a similar dynamic in the Caixin m'fing PMI print, which is more geared towards SMEs). Elsewhere, some questions over the efficacy of COVID vaccines is becoming apparent, centring on developments in Israel, which will likely result in broader calls for the deployment of booster shots. Also, in light of last week's regulatory wrangling surrounding the Chinese equity space, China's CSRC called for deeper communication with the U.S. SEC re: IPOs.
- Late on Friday Fed Governor Brainard noted that she will be more confident in assessing the rate of progress in the economy once data is in hand for September, adding that the labor market has some distance to go until it meets the central bank's goals. Sunday saw Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari ('23 voter) underscore the possibility that the delta variant of COVID-19 may harm the labour market and therefore the U.S. economic recovery.
- On the fiscal front, the U.S. Senate is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package "in a matter of days," per Senate Majority Leader Schumer, after the text of the legislation was finalised late on Sunday.
- The latest ISM m'fing print headlines on the data front during NY hours.