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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed funds implied rates have pulled back some more from yesterday’s post-data highs, leaving the next four meetings at very similar readings to pre-data levels but 2H24 rates still higher – see table.
- There is ~50/50 odds of a first cut in March, fully pricing it for May (cumulative 29bps) and a cumulative 115bp of cuts to end-2024.
- Chair Powell headlines today's docket with a fireside chat including text at 1100ET, followed by a discussion with Gov. Cook at 1400ET.
- Fedspeak has had a large impact this weekend, starting with dovish musings from Gov. Waller (increasingly confident Fed policy on right setting, similar inflation readings for next three, four or five months could justify lower rates).
- It was followed yesterday by Daly ('24) and less so Williams (permament voter) steadying the ship. Daly is not thinking about cuts at all right now with it being too early to know if the Fed is finished hiking (but comments made before being published yesterday), whilst Williams noted a need for restrictive policy for quite some time but also repeating the Fed is at or near its peak of interest rates and is also not losing much sleep over market forecasts for cuts.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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