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OIL: Argus Economist Points to Mixed Geopolitical Risks for Oil

OIL
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The ceasefire this week between Hezbollah and Israel removes “one strand”  of the geopolitical risk premium that has held up in oil this year according to David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus.

  • “We still have a lot of uncertainty around what the incoming Trump administration does surrounding sanctions on Iran on the one hand and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,” he said.
  • “You’ve got geopolitical concerns holding up oil on one hand and global economic concerns pressing on the other, weighing down on prices,” Fyfe said.
  • Argus see’s global oil demand growth of around 1mn bpd next year, more than matched by growth in non-OPEC supply (US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana) adding significant pressure on OPEC bringing back barrels.
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The ceasefire this week between Hezbollah and Israel removes “one strand”  of the geopolitical risk premium that has held up in oil this year according to David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus.

  • “We still have a lot of uncertainty around what the incoming Trump administration does surrounding sanctions on Iran on the one hand and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,” he said.
  • “You’ve got geopolitical concerns holding up oil on one hand and global economic concerns pressing on the other, weighing down on prices,” Fyfe said.
  • Argus see’s global oil demand growth of around 1mn bpd next year, more than matched by growth in non-OPEC supply (US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana) adding significant pressure on OPEC bringing back barrels.