Oil at European Close: Brent Maintains Recovery

Oil extends its gains from last week despite mixed data out of China, instead supported by short covering and summer demand optimism.

• Brent AUG 24 up 1.2% at 83.58$/bbl
• WTI JUL 24 up 1.4% at 79.57$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 24 up 0.8% at 768.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -4.55$/bbl
• Money managers net long crude positions rose last week after seeing Brent at the least bullish since Sep 2014 the previous week. The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI rose by 70k to 246k according to the Commitments of Traders data released on Friday.
• China's oil refinery output in May was down 1.8% y/y to its lowest in 2024 at 60.52m tons (14.25mbpd), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics cited by Reuters.
• The Middle East conflict remains an upside risk to markets. US diplomat Amos Hochstein has traveled to the Middle East on Monday to try and ease tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. It remains a key area of risk according to RBC.
• The Russian Embassy said to Denmark on Monday - Any restrictions on ships passing through the Danish straits would be unacceptable.
• June is set to be a month of record high crude exports from Vancouver because of the start of TMX, with volumes touching 300kbd according to Vortexa projections.
• The North Sea Buzzard field resumed production over the weekend according to a Cnooc email correspondence with Bloomberg.
• Oil markets have gotten over the “taper tantrum” that occurred after the latest OPEC+ meet, allowing some market recovery last week according to RBC’s head of commodity analysis Helima Croft.