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OIL: Brent 2024 Forecast Lowered to $82.86/bbl: Reuters Poll

OIL

Brent oil price forecasts for 2024 have been lowered to an average of $82.86/bbl due to weak fuel demand in China and rising inventories amid returning OPEC supply, according to a Reuters poll.

  • A survey of 37 economists and analysts averaged just below a consensus of $83.66/bbl from a poll last month.
  • The WTI poll average for 2024 was down to $78.82/bbl from $79.22/bbl last month.
  • Oil demand growth is expected between 1.0mbpd and 1.3mbpd compared with between 1.0 and 1.5mbpd in the previous poll.
  • Analysts suggest the risk premium due to conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has reduced with no material impact on oil flows.
  • A further widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict combined with any sustained Libya supply outages could push prices above $90/bbl, said Florian Grunberger at Kpler.
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