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OIL: China’s Crude Imports Expected to Pick Up in H2 2024: Rystad

OIL

China’s crude imports are expected to pick up in the second half of 2024, according to Ye Lin at Rystad Energy cited by Bloomberg.

  • A base case assumes H2 imports of 11.4mb/d while a bullish scenario shows Imports at 11.6mb/d.
  • The bullish scenario assumes timely start up of the Yulong refinery, higher export quotas when third batch are released, a fast recovery of teapot refineries and increased state owned utilization rates on higher petchem margins.
  • China’s oil imports in the second half of 2023 were 11.23m b/d
  • China has scope to boost run rates and inventories and can take advantage of low crude cost in H2 and imports of sanctioned barrels from Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
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