Free Trial

OIL: Citigroup See Bearish Crude in H2 2025 Amid Potential Trump Presidency

OIL

An introduction of sanctions on Iran due to a potential Donald Trump presidency would not likely be enough to counter an approximate 2mb/d global surplus projected for 1H 2025, according to Citigroup cited by Bloomberg earlier this week.

  • Other potential measures from a Trump victory would be generally bearish for oil. Possible impacts include a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and the return of some oil OPEC+ spare capacity amid warmer US-Saudi relationship.
  • US oil and natural gas production may be stronger at the margin while there may be no negative impact on the path of EV development in the US.
  • Trump’s proposed implementation of major tariffs on US imports wouldn’t come for at least 12 months.
  • Citigroup suggest bearish price views for crude in H2 2025 averaging no more than $60/bbl amid 10-year lows in price volatility.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.