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OIL: Crude Eases as Market Weighs Helene Impact and China Support

OIL
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Brent front month pulls back from a high of $75.87/bbl yesterday but with no new driver as the market weighs near term supply disruptions and whether China’s monetary easing will lead to a boost in demand growth.

  • Continued tensions in Israel/Lebanon and hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico have been supporting prices. Tropical storm Helene has shut in about 16% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output according to Argus citing Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
  • Crude curve backwardation is also softening with both the prompt and the Dec24-Dec spreads back at levels seen early last week.
  • Technicals suggest the latest was considered corrective and a downtrend remains intact with key Brent Nov 24 support and bear trigger at the Sep 10 low of $68.68.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 1.9% at 73.74$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2.1% at 70.05$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.11$/bbl at 0.59$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.47$/bbl at 1.5$/bbl   
    • WTI NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.13$/bbl at 0.59$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.49$/bbl at 2.22$/bbl
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Brent front month pulls back from a high of $75.87/bbl yesterday but with no new driver as the market weighs near term supply disruptions and whether China’s monetary easing will lead to a boost in demand growth.

  • Continued tensions in Israel/Lebanon and hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico have been supporting prices. Tropical storm Helene has shut in about 16% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output according to Argus citing Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
  • Crude curve backwardation is also softening with both the prompt and the Dec24-Dec spreads back at levels seen early last week.
  • Technicals suggest the latest was considered corrective and a downtrend remains intact with key Brent Nov 24 support and bear trigger at the Sep 10 low of $68.68.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 1.9% at 73.74$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2.1% at 70.05$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.11$/bbl at 0.59$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.47$/bbl at 1.5$/bbl   
    • WTI NOV 24-DEC 24 down 0.13$/bbl at 0.59$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.49$/bbl at 2.22$/bbl