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OIL: Crude Futures and Spreads Pull Back from Earlier Gains

OIL

Crude front month has pulled back to flat on the day after earlier gains supported by heightening Middle East risks and a more dovish Fed Powell.

  • Time spreads have softened slightly following earlier gains with no recommendation from the JMMC OPEC meeting today.  Risks of a supply surplus later this year and into 2025 due to weak China demand and higher OPEC supply have limited market upside.
  • OPEC+ has reiterated the option to pause or reverse the current plans to return output from October.
  • US data showed lower than expected ISM manufacturing, falling to 46.8 (cons 48.8) from 48.5 in June. It’s the lowest since Nov 2023. Swaps now fully price in three rate cuts in 2024.
    • Brent OCT 24 down 0% at 80.83$/bbl
    • WTI SEP 24 down 0.2% at 77.78$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down 1.94$/bbl at -4.06$/bbl
    • Brent OCT 24-NOV 24 unchanged at 0.61$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.2$/bbl at 3.72$/bbl

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