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OIL: Crude Gains on Middle East Escaltion Ahead of JMMC Meeting

OIL
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Crude has extended gains from yesterday reaching a Brent front month high of $75.45 driven by an increased risk of supply disruption from the Middle East after Iran airstrikes on Israel. Brent remains below the high from last week with upside limited by OPEC+ plans to increase supply in December and the prospect of returning barrels from Libya.

  • The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems. Uncertainty surrounds the response, but Israel’s Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate stating that ‘Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.’
  • The OPEC JMMC monitoring committee, that can recommend changes to the group, meets today but delegates said they don’t expect any changes to the group’s policy to return some supply from December.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a draw of 0.63mbbl along with gasoline and distillates draws. API data yesterday showed a crude stocks draw of 1.5mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks built 0.9mbbl and distillates fell 2.7mbbl.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks hold steady today after easing lower so far this week with ongoing concern for tepid demand set against reduced refinery runs due to maintenance and low margins.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 1.6% at 74.74$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 1.7% at 71.04$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.39$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.29$/bbl at 1.88$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.61$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 21.65$/bbl
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Crude has extended gains from yesterday reaching a Brent front month high of $75.45 driven by an increased risk of supply disruption from the Middle East after Iran airstrikes on Israel. Brent remains below the high from last week with upside limited by OPEC+ plans to increase supply in December and the prospect of returning barrels from Libya.

  • The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems. Uncertainty surrounds the response, but Israel’s Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate stating that ‘Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.’
  • The OPEC JMMC monitoring committee, that can recommend changes to the group, meets today but delegates said they don’t expect any changes to the group’s policy to return some supply from December.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a draw of 0.63mbbl along with gasoline and distillates draws. API data yesterday showed a crude stocks draw of 1.5mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks built 0.9mbbl and distillates fell 2.7mbbl.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks hold steady today after easing lower so far this week with ongoing concern for tepid demand set against reduced refinery runs due to maintenance and low margins.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 1.6% at 74.74$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 1.7% at 71.04$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.39$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.29$/bbl at 1.88$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.61$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 21.65$/bbl