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OIL: Crude Holds Near June Highs with Focus on Upside Risks

OIL

Crude is holding steady with Brent front month just below the high of $86.24/bbl seen on June 21 driven by market sentiment expecting a tighter balance over the summer.

  • Crude time spreads recovered ground after softening earlier in the day yesterday to maintain the strongest backwardation since late April.
    • Brent AUG 24 down 0% at 86$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 up 0% at 81.64$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.85$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.02$/bbl at 5.06$/bbl
  • The OPEC production cut extension into Q3 and a potential summer boost to fuel demand are supporting prices despite the disappointing early summer demand data.
  • Ongoing Middle East tensions, Russia energy infrastructure attacks and an expected Atlantic hurricane season are added price risks although the pace of future growth in key demand regions of US and China remains uncertain.
  • Funds crude net long positioning has recovered but remains well below the bullish levels seen in April.
  • Gasoline cracks edged lower yesterday to hold within a $21.7 to $24.15/bbl range since mid June.  US retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 0.8% for the week ending June 22 to 8.875mb/d, according to GasBuddy.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 23.07$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 25.04$/bbl
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